"Nintendo Switch 2 Sales Forecast for 2025 Revealed"

Summary

• Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella predicts that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell approximately 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming a launch in the first half of the year.
• Despite strong sales, Piscatella believes the PlayStation 5 will lead US console sales in 2025.
• The success of the Switch 2 hinges on launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup.

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella has forecasted that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell around 4.3 million units in the United States in 2025, provided it launches within the first half of the year. This prediction comes with the backdrop of the original Nintendo Switch's impressive start, which sold 4.8 million units by the end of 2017, exceeding Nintendo's initial expectations. To meet the high demand, Nintendo had to fly in additional units. Fans are optimistic that Nintendo has learned from past experiences and will be better prepared for the Switch 2's launch.

The anticipation for Nintendo's next console is palpable, with the Switch 2 frequently trending on social media due to excitement over its announcement. However, this buzz might not directly translate into sales. Several factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, including the timing of its release and the strength of its game lineup.

Mat Piscatella, a Circana video game analyst, shared his expectation that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming a first-half launch. Many speculate that the Switch 2 will be released by April 2025, just before summer, which could capitalize on increased sales during Japan's Golden Week holiday and global summer festivities.

"Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)." — Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Piscatella further elaborated that the Switch 2 is expected to account for one-third of all video game hardware unit sales in the US, excluding portable PC devices like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally. He anticipates potential supply constraints due to high initial demand, but it's unclear how much manufacturing capacity Nintendo has reserved for the Switch 2. It's possible that Nintendo has stockpiled resources to avoid the shortages seen with the original Switch and the PS5.

Despite the projected strong sales of the Switch 2, Piscatella predicts that the PlayStation 5 will continue to lead in US console sales. While the Switch 2 generates significant excitement, the PS5 has a lineup of highly anticipated titles for 2025, including Grand Theft Auto 6, which is expected to be a major system-seller and may not be available on Nintendo platforms. The success of the Switch 2 will ultimately depend on the impressiveness of its hardware and the strength of its launch lineup.